22/01/2020

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The example below was the report we sent out 22nd January 2020:

US markets turned bearish on Tuesday following the first reported case of Coronavirus hit the USA.

Safe haven currencies rallied and stocks fell on Tuesday after a Chinese traveller who arrived in Seattle was confirmed as the first case of Coronavirus in the USA.

Markets are nervous as the virus appears to be popping up in more than one or two locations outside of China. International airline stocks took a beating along with any company associated with international tourism. The Aussie Dollar was lower and continues to move in a downward direction.

With a 3% gain on the S&P 500 in January 2020 traders snapped a 5-day winning streak to turn US markets sharply lower. If the virus continues to pop up in other countries then markets could get very bearish quickly with the Yen, Swiss Franc and Gold likely to rise in value.

Any pullback on blue chip stocks is going to be seen as a buying opportunity as interest rates in 2020 are going to remain low and my view is stocks still have some room to run higher before a larger correction later in the year that would be based on the potential rise in interest rates in the USA. Or an unforeseen “surprise” event popping up like the current virus threat.

China’s currency slides and drags the Aussie down with it.

The Yuan dived lower on Tuesday as a fourth death from the Coronavirus was confirmed and risk sentiment fell sharply. When markets turn bearish quickly you can expect to see the AUD and NZD move lower as they are not currencies traders want to hold in uncertain times. The AUD and NZD are likely to weaken further against the Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar if the market continues to be nervous about the prospect of the virus spreading globally.

The deepness of the sell off on financial markets is going to be determined by how quickly health organisations can get a handle on the virus and stop its spread. More confirmed deaths would be a sell signal for the market.

US Dollar index hits a one month high.

The Dollar Index which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of other major currencies is currently sitting at a one month high. The greenback is a safe haven currency in times of uncertainty and will continue to rise in value against emerging market currencies and in particular Asian currencies if the current market mood remains.

Trump talks up the chances of a phase 2 trade deal with China.

The US President is in Davos this week and said talks about a phase 2 trade deal with China will begin soon. Financial markets rallied strongly following the signing of phase 1 even though both countries continue to maintain heavy tariffs on one another.

The USA and China are the two largest economies in the world and if they are going to come to an agreement on future trade deals the market will likely see this as a positive. Further details will need to be released in coming months and no doubt President Trump will want as many runs on the board as he can before November’s Presidential election.